College Football Nerds Rankings

Take a look at our Computer Model 1-136 ranking that simulates each team playing all other 132 FBS teams in college football.

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College Football Nerds Computer Model 1-136

This ranking is based on modeling every team against every other team in the country and calculating expected record. Outcomes are matchup-dependent, so a lower-ranked team may still be favored in the model over some higher-ranked teams. The modeling is conference/opponent adjusted, and overall records reflect win probabilities (an even game is 0.5-0.5)

 
Wins Losses
1)Ohio State 129.48 5.52
2)Indiana 126.91 8.09
3)Texas Tech 126.45 8.55
4)Oregon 122.78 12.22
5)Utah 121.88 13.12
6)Miami 119.96 15.04
7)Notre Dame 119.87 15.13
8)Vanderbilt 119.43 15.57
9)USC 116.54 18.46
10)Texas A&M 114.77 20.23
11)Oklahoma 114.30 20.70
12)Georgia 113.70 21.30
13)Alabama 113.02 21.98
14)Michigan 111.73 23.27
15)Cincinnati 110.94 24.06
16)Ole Miss 110.07 24.93
17)Texas 109.53 25.47
18)Washington 106.23 28.77
19)Missouri 106.08 28.92
20)Tennessee 105.77 29.23
21)Pittsburgh 104.43 30.57
22)SMU 103.87 31.13
23)Iowa 103.35 31.65
24)BYU 102.70 32.30
25)Georgia Tech 102.55 32.45
26)Florida State 101.99 33.01
27)LSU 101.82 33.18
28)Louisville 100.45 34.55
29)Auburn 99.63 35.37
30)UCF 98.00 37.00
31)Kansas State 96.60 38.40
32)Arkansas 96.13 38.87
33)San Diego State 95.77 39.23
34)Penn State 94.98 40.02
35)TCU 94.17 40.83
36)Clemson 93.67 41.33
37)Mississippi State 93.57 41.43
38)Wake Forest 93.05 41.95
39)Arizona 92.64 42.36
40)Navy 91.61 43.39
41)Nebraska 91.35 43.65
42)North Texas 90.85 44.15
43)Illinois 90.41 44.59
44)Memphis 90.06 44.94
45)Virginia 89.32 45.68
46)James Madison 89.28 45.72
47)Houston 87.48 47.52
48)Iowa State 86.22 48.78
49)Maryland 84.80 50.20
50)NC State 84.02 50.98
51)Duke 83.36 51.64
52)South Florida 83.06 51.94
53)Arizona State 82.39 52.61
54)Boise State 82.08 52.92
55)Kansas 79.09 55.91
56)Old Dominion 78.22 56.78
57)South Carolina 76.64 58.36
58)Northwestern 74.22 60.78
59)Toledo 74.06 60.94
60)Southern Miss 72.73 62.27
61)New Mexico 70.78 64.22
62)UNLV 70.74 64.26
63)Colorado 70.61 64.39
64)Florida 69.63 65.37
65)Kentucky 68.73 66.27
66)Baylor 68.71 66.29
67)East Carolina 68.54 66.46
68)Washington State 67.71 67.29
69)Kennesaw State 65.00 70.00
70)Miami (OH) 62.98 72.02
71)Wisconsin 62.00 73.00
72)UConn 61.89 73.11
73)Tulane 61.22 73.78
74)Michigan State 60.67 74.33
75)Louisiana Tech 59.48 75.52
76)Texas State 58.63 76.37
77)Temple 57.88 77.12
78)UCLA 57.74 77.26
79)Minnesota 55.48 79.52
80)Wyoming 55.40 79.60
81)Western Michigan 55.18 79.82
82)California 53.73 81.27
83)Purdue 53.25 81.75
84)San José State 53.19 81.81
85)UTSA 52.93 82.07
86)Delaware 52.16 82.84
87)Army 50.48 84.52
88)Utah State 50.22 84.78
89)Ohio 50.03 84.97
90)North Carolina 49.86 85.14
91)Virginia Tech 49.37 85.63
92)Central Michigan 49.17 85.83
93)Troy 48.82 86.18
94)Hawai'i 48.12 86.88
95)App State 45.63 89.37
96)Marshall 45.40 89.60
97)Rutgers 44.98 90.02
98)Stanford 44.83 90.17
99)Syracuse 44.53 90.47
100)Western Kentucky 44.45 90.55
101)New Mexico State 41.25 93.75
102)Liberty 39.85 95.15
103)Air Force 39.59 95.41
104)Jacksonville State 39.33 95.67
105)Fresno State 38.53 96.47
106)Buffalo 38.47 96.53
107)South Alabama 37.90 97.10
108)Northern Illinois 36.03 98.97
109)Tulsa 34.26 100.74
110)Missouri State 33.15 101.85
111)West Virginia 32.70 102.30
112)Eastern Michigan 32.19 102.81
113)Florida Atlantic 32.02 102.98
114)Colorado State 31.55 103.45
115)Rice 31.14 103.86
116)UTEP 30.15 104.85
117)Oregon State 27.72 107.28
118)Coastal Carolina 27.12 107.88
119)Georgia Southern 26.99 108.01
120)Louisiana 26.93 108.07
121)Arkansas State 25.55 109.45
122)Nevada 25.42 109.58
123)Boston College 25.28 109.72
124)Middle Tennessee 23.66 111.34
125)Bowling Green 23.15 111.85
126)UAB 21.80 113.20
127)Oklahoma State 21.28 113.72
128)Florida International 21.06 113.94
129)UL Monroe 20.95 114.05
130)Kent State 20.44 114.56
131)Akron 19.34 115.66
132)Ball State 15.80 119.20
133)Georgia State 15.24 119.76
134)Charlotte 10.48 124.52
135)Sam Houston 9.99 125.01
136)Massachusetts 5.68 129.32