College Football Nerds Rankings

Take a look at our Computer Model 1-133 ranking that simulates each team playing all other 132 FBS teams in college football.

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College Football Nerds Computer Model 1-133

This ranking is based on modeling every team against every other team in the country and calculating expected record. Outcomes are matchup-dependent, so a lower-ranked team may still be favored in the model over some higher-ranked teams. The modeling is conference/opponent adjusted, and overall records reflect win probabilities (an even game is 0.5-0.5)

 
Wins Losses
1)Ohio State 127.65 5.35
2)Texas 124.27 8.73
3)Notre Dame 121.60 11.40
4)Oregon 121.43 11.57
5)Ole Miss 121.00 12.00
6)Indiana 116.49 16.51
7)Penn State 115.39 17.61
8)SMU 114.67 18.33
9)Alabama 113.05 19.95
10)Tennessee 112.39 20.61
11)Miami 112.08 20.92
12)South Carolina 110.39 22.61
13)Colorado 105.65 27.35
14)Louisville 105.07 27.93
15)Georgia 104.99 28.01
16)USC 103.17 29.83
17)BYU 103.07 29.93
18)Arizona State 102.13 30.87
19)Iowa 101.49 31.51
20)Texas A&M 100.94 32.06
21)Florida 100.90 32.10
22)Tulane 99.74 33.26
23)LSU 98.31 34.69
24)Iowa State 97.73 35.27
25)Clemson 93.95 39.05
26)Michigan 93.80 39.20
27)TCU 93.73 39.27
28)Kansas 91.69 41.31
29)Kansas State 91.68 41.32
30)Boise State 91.38 41.62
31)Texas Tech 90.98 42.02
32)Baylor 90.16 42.84
33)Auburn 89.82 43.18
34)UNLV 89.81 43.19
35)Virginia Tech 88.69 44.31
36)Minnesota 88.31 44.69
37)Arkansas 87.32 45.68
38)Missouri 86.71 46.29
39)Washington 86.40 46.60
40)Illinois 85.78 47.22
41)Army 85.71 47.29
42)Nebraska 84.93 48.07
43)Cincinnati 84.87 48.13
44)Ohio 84.37 48.63
45)UCF 83.57 49.43
46)Miami (OH) 82.68 50.32
47)Duke 79.93 53.07
48)Texas State 79.81 53.19
49)California 79.33 53.67
50)Georgia Tech 78.55 54.45
51)Pittsburgh 78.38 54.62
52)UCLA 77.34 55.66
53)Oklahoma 75.93 57.07
54)Vanderbilt 74.53 58.47
55)Washington State 74.34 58.66
56)Utah 74.26 58.74
57)Memphis 73.90 59.10
58)Liberty 73.68 59.32
59)NC State 73.16 59.84
60)Wisconsin 72.62 60.38
61)Syracuse 72.24 60.76
62)Rutgers 71.35 61.65
63)North Carolina 70.79 62.21
64)Kentucky 70.04 62.96
65)Navy 69.63 63.37
66)Marshall 69.10 63.90
67)Air Force 68.43 64.57
68)South Alabama 67.66 65.34
69)James Madison 67.49 65.51
70)West Virginia 67.36 65.64
71)Boston College 67.28 65.72
72)Louisiana 66.68 66.32
73)San Jose State 65.84 67.16
74)Jacksonville State 65.18 67.82
75)Bowling Green 64.82 68.18
76)Colorado State 63.66 69.34
77)Wake Forest 62.98 70.02
78)Michigan State 62.40 70.60
79)Houston 60.54 72.46
80)Northern Illinois 59.90 73.10
81)Old Dominion 59.06 73.94
82)Maryland 58.16 74.84
83)UConn 57.49 75.51
84)East Carolina 56.67 76.33
85)Fresno State 55.96 77.04
86)Virginia 54.46 78.54
87)UTSA 52.00 81.00
88)UMass 51.85 81.15
89)Northwestern 51.71 81.29
90)Louisiana Tech 51.64 81.36
91)Arizona 51.03 81.97
92)Georgia Southern 50.89 82.11
93)Western Kentucky 50.65 82.35
94)North Texas 50.59 82.41
95)Sam Houston 50.56 82.44
96)Florida International 50.06 82.94
97)Stanford 49.28 83.72
98)Toledo 49.19 83.81
99)Nevada 45.77 87.23
100)Utah State 43.74 89.26
101)Oklahoma State 43.36 89.64
102)Mississippi State 43.24 89.76
103)Florida State 42.34 90.66
104)Coastal Carolina 42.13 90.87
105)Appalachian State 41.39 91.61
106)UL Monroe 40.58 92.42
107)New Mexico 38.16 94.84
108)Rice 36.63 96.37
109)Troy 36.26 96.74
110)Charlotte 34.47 98.53
111)Oregon State 33.30 99.70
112)South Florida 33.04 99.96
113)Buffalo 31.69 101.31
114)Florida Atlantic 31.08 101.92
115)Georgia State 30.62 102.38
116)Hawai'i 29.64 103.36
117)Arkansas State 25.04 107.96
118)Wyoming 24.86 108.14
119)Central Michigan 24.52 108.48
120)UTEP 23.19 109.81
121)Western Michigan 22.77 110.23
122)Eastern Michigan 20.96 112.04
123)UAB 19.23 113.77
124)Purdue 18.72 114.28
125)Akron 18.07 114.93
126)Temple 17.45 115.55
127)Kennesaw State 17.24 115.76
128)New Mexico State 16.40 116.60
129)Middle Tennessee 14.59 118.41
130)Ball State 13.39 119.61
131)San Diego State 13.31 119.69
132)Southern Miss 10.51 122.49
133)Tulsa 9.58 123.42
134)Kent State 4.37 128.63