College Football Nerds Rankings

Take a look at our Computer Model 1-133 ranking that simulates each team playing all other 132 FBS teams in college football.

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College Football Nerds Computer Model 1-133

This ranking is based on modeling every team against every other team in the country and calculating expected record. Outcomes are matchup-dependent, so a lower-ranked team may still be favored in the model over some higher-ranked teams. The modeling is conference/opponent adjusted, and overall records reflect win probabilities (an even game is 0.5-0.5)

 
Wins Losses
1)Ohio State 128.47 4.53
2)Texas 122.96 10.04
3)Ole Miss 122.70 10.30
4)Notre Dame 119.87 13.13
5)Oregon 117.60 15.40
6)Indiana 117.14 15.86
7)SMU 114.96 18.04
8)Penn State 114.23 18.77
9)Tennessee 112.69 20.31
10)Alabama 112.38 20.62
11)Miami 111.94 21.06
12)South Carolina 107.72 25.28
13)Colorado 106.35 26.65
14)Georgia 105.38 27.62
15)BYU 104.03 28.97
16)Louisville 103.95 29.05
17)USC 102.13 30.87
18)Arizona State 101.69 31.31
19)Iowa 101.38 31.62
20)Florida 101.26 31.74
21)Texas A&M 101.10 31.90
22)LSU 100.42 32.58
23)Tulane 99.76 33.24
24)TCU 97.66 35.34
25)Iowa State 97.34 35.66
26)Clemson 94.96 38.04
27)Kansas State 93.63 39.37
28)Michigan 93.46 39.54
29)Kansas 92.34 40.66
30)Arkansas 91.23 41.77
31)Boise State 90.42 42.58
32)Auburn 90.38 42.62
33)UNLV 89.94 43.06
34)Minnesota 89.93 43.07
35)Nebraska 88.63 44.37
36)Texas Tech 88.05 44.95
37)Illinois 88.03 44.97
38)Virginia Tech 87.62 45.38
39)Baylor 87.45 45.55
40)Missouri 87.18 45.82
41)Army 86.55 46.45
42)Ohio 85.43 47.57
43)Cincinnati 85.29 47.71
44)Washington 84.99 48.01
45)UCF 84.60 48.40
46)Miami (OH) 81.53 51.47
47)Syracuse 81.09 51.91
48)California 80.80 52.20
49)Pittsburgh 78.78 54.22
50)Georgia Tech 78.58 54.42
51)Texas State 77.29 55.71
52)UCLA 76.91 56.09
53)Oklahoma 76.50 56.50
54)Duke 74.81 58.19
55)Vanderbilt 74.80 58.20
56)Utah 74.54 58.46
57)NC State 74.40 58.60
58)Memphis 73.93 59.07
59)Wisconsin 71.79 61.21
60)North Carolina 71.63 61.37
61)Rutgers 71.36 61.64
62)Liberty 71.32 61.68
63)Kentucky 70.49 62.51
64)Marshall 69.36 63.64
65)Navy 69.11 63.89
66)Air Force 68.41 64.59
67)Washington State 68.19 64.81
68)West Virginia 67.94 65.06
69)James Madison 67.69 65.31
70)South Alabama 67.37 65.63
71)Boston College 65.91 67.09
72)Jacksonville State 65.42 67.58
73)San Jose State 65.25 67.75
74)Wake Forest 64.21 68.79
75)Bowling Green 62.46 70.54
76)Michigan State 62.35 70.65
77)Louisiana 62.33 70.67
78)Houston 61.60 71.40
79)Colorado State 61.47 71.53
80)Northern Illinois 59.85 73.15
81)Old Dominion 58.43 74.57
82)UConn 57.77 75.23
83)Maryland 57.65 75.35
84)Fresno State 55.74 77.26
85)East Carolina 54.98 78.02
86)Virginia 54.61 78.39
87)Arizona 51.96 81.04
88)UTSA 51.80 81.20
89)UMass 51.72 81.28
90)North Texas 51.71 81.29
91)Northwestern 51.39 81.61
92)Georgia Southern 50.91 82.09
93)Louisiana Tech 50.87 82.13
94)Stanford 50.61 82.39
95)Western Kentucky 50.47 82.53
96)Florida International 50.42 82.58
97)Sam Houston 50.18 82.82
98)Toledo 50.15 82.85
99)Nevada 45.91 87.09
100)Oklahoma State 43.88 89.12
101)Utah State 43.48 89.52
102)Mississippi State 43.25 89.75
103)Florida State 42.78 90.22
104)Coastal Carolina 42.25 90.75
105)Appalachian State 40.82 92.18
106)UL Monroe 39.78 93.22
107)New Mexico 37.47 95.53
108)Rice 36.21 96.79
109)Troy 36.04 96.96
110)Buffalo 35.58 97.42
111)Charlotte 34.22 98.78
112)Oregon State 34.07 98.93
113)South Florida 32.74 100.26
114)Florida Atlantic 31.10 101.90
115)Georgia State 30.80 102.20
116)Hawai'i 29.42 103.58
117)Arkansas State 27.86 105.14
118)Wyoming 24.75 108.25
119)Central Michigan 24.63 108.37
120)UTEP 23.27 109.73
121)Western Michigan 22.78 110.22
122)Eastern Michigan 21.39 111.61
123)UAB 19.14 113.86
124)Purdue 18.25 114.75
125)Akron 18.00 115.00
126)Temple 17.21 115.79
127)Kennesaw State 16.98 116.02
128)New Mexico State 16.21 116.79
129)Middle Tennessee 14.20 118.80
130)San Diego State 13.28 119.72
131)Ball State 13.06 119.94
132)Southern Miss 10.35 122.65
133)Tulsa 9.52 123.48
134)Kent State 4.20 128.80