College Football Nerds Rankings

Take a look at our Computer Model 1-136 ranking that simulates each team playing all other 132 FBS teams in college football.

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College Football Nerds Computer Model 1-136

This ranking is based on modeling every team against every other team in the country and calculating expected record. Outcomes are matchup-dependent, so a lower-ranked team may still be favored in the model over some higher-ranked teams. The modeling is conference/opponent adjusted, and overall records reflect win probabilities (an even game is 0.5-0.5)

 
Wins Losses
1)Ohio State 131.67 3.33
2)Indiana 129.22 5.78
3)Texas Tech 128.62 6.38
4)Notre Dame 128.11 6.89
5)Oregon 124.87 10.13
6)Miami 124.59 10.41
7)Vanderbilt 121.94 13.06
8)Utah 118.87 16.13
9)Georgia 118.71 16.29
10)Texas A&M 116.74 18.26
11)Ole Miss 113.92 21.08
12)USC 113.46 21.54
13)Alabama 112.79 22.21
14)James Madison 112.74 22.26
15)BYU 112.20 22.80
16)Oklahoma 112.16 22.84
17)Washington 110.54 24.46
18)SMU 109.59 25.41
19)Michigan 108.28 26.72
20)Texas 106.98 28.02
21)Tennessee 105.70 29.30
22)Arizona 104.72 30.28
23)South Florida 104.00 31.00
24)North Texas 103.59 31.41
25)Missouri 103.40 31.60
26)LSU 102.28 32.72
27)Louisville 102.08 32.92
28)Florida State 101.53 33.47
29)Virginia 101.45 33.55
30)Iowa 101.27 33.73
31)Penn State 101.08 33.92
32)Clemson 97.24 37.76
33)Auburn 96.96 38.04
34)TCU 96.94 38.06
35)Pittsburgh 96.28 38.72
36)Kansas State 96.27 38.73
37)Arkansas 95.28 39.72
38)Iowa State 94.42 40.58
39)Cincinnati 93.88 41.12
40)Illinois 93.36 41.64
41)Wake Forest 89.95 45.05
42)Houston 89.90 45.10
43)Georgia Tech 89.01 45.99
44)San Diego State 88.87 46.13
45)Arizona State 86.97 48.03
46)South Carolina 86.85 48.15
47)Toledo 85.98 49.02
48)UCF 83.92 51.08
49)NC State 83.54 51.46
50)New Mexico 83.38 51.62
51)Tulane 83.35 51.65
52)Old Dominion 83.03 51.97
53)Mississippi State 82.00 53.00
54)Duke 80.16 54.84
55)Boise State 79.91 55.09
56)UNLV 78.56 56.44
57)Texas State 78.43 56.57
58)Florida 77.42 57.58
59)East Carolina 75.70 59.30
60)Nebraska 74.52 60.48
61)Northwestern 74.12 60.88
62)Navy 74.00 61.00
63)Kansas 73.41 61.59
64)Memphis 72.62 62.38
65)Baylor 71.70 63.30
66)Washington State 69.38 65.62
67)Kentucky 67.67 67.33
68)Wisconsin 67.23 67.77
69)Michigan State 66.88 68.12
70)California 63.11 71.89
71)UConn 60.82 74.18
72)Miami (OH) 60.79 74.21
73)Colorado 59.66 75.34
74)Maryland 58.95 76.05
75)Utah State 58.49 76.51
76)Stanford 57.84 77.16
77)Minnesota 55.46 79.54
78)UTSA 53.54 81.46
79)North Carolina 52.97 82.03
80)UCLA 52.87 82.13
81)Southern Miss 52.67 82.33
82)Louisiana Tech 51.86 83.14
83)Virginia Tech 51.76 83.24
84)Army 51.21 83.79
85)Kennesaw State 50.79 84.21
86)Purdue 50.34 84.66
87)Ohio 50.21 84.79
88)Central Michigan 49.84 85.16
89)Rutgers 49.81 85.19
90)Marshall 49.33 85.67
91)Fresno State 49.14 85.86
92)Liberty 49.04 85.96
93)Western Michigan 48.07 86.93
94)Western Kentucky 45.59 89.41
95)Hawai'i 45.48 89.52
96)Jacksonville State 44.45 90.55
97)West Virginia 43.65 91.35
98)Missouri State 41.61 93.39
99)Air Force 40.34 94.66
100)Troy 38.70 96.30
101)San José State 37.94 97.06
102)Florida International 37.46 97.54
103)South Alabama 37.07 97.93
104)App State 36.10 98.90
105)Boston College 35.58 99.42
106)Wyoming 34.96 100.04
107)Buffalo 34.78 100.22
108)Northern Illinois 34.64 100.36
109)Florida Atlantic 34.20 100.80
110)Tulsa 33.59 101.41
111)Delaware 33.26 101.74
112)Georgia Southern 32.61 102.39
113)Eastern Michigan 32.39 102.61
114)Temple 32.35 102.65
115)Bowling Green 32.05 102.95
116)New Mexico State 31.88 103.12
117)Syracuse 30.85 104.15
118)Oklahoma State 30.56 104.44
119)Nevada 30.23 104.77
120)Louisiana 29.76 105.24
121)Arkansas State 29.73 105.27
122)Kent State 27.58 107.42
123)Middle Tennessee 26.51 108.49
124)Akron 23.49 111.51
125)UL Monroe 22.40 112.60
126)Oregon State 22.14 112.86
127)UTEP 21.99 113.01
128)UAB 21.74 113.26
129)Coastal Carolina 19.96 115.04
130)Rice 18.88 116.12
131)Georgia State 17.04 117.96
132)Ball State 16.17 118.83
133)Colorado State 13.18 121.82
134)Charlotte 10.30 124.70
135)Sam Houston 6.96 128.04
136)Massachusetts 6.11 128.89