College Football Nerds Rankings

Take a look at our Computer Model 1-136 ranking that simulates each team playing all other 132 FBS teams in college football.

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College Football Nerds Computer Model 1-136

This ranking is based on modeling every team against every other team in the country and calculating expected record. Outcomes are matchup-dependent, so a lower-ranked team may still be favored in the model over some higher-ranked teams. The modeling is conference/opponent adjusted, and overall records reflect win probabilities (an even game is 0.5-0.5)

 
Wins Losses
1)Miami 134.26 2.74
2)Notre Dame 129.64 7.36
3)Georgia 128.74 8.26
4)Alabama 127.28 9.72
5)Ohio State 126.89 10.11
6)Utah 125.08 11.92
7)Texas 123.72 13.28
8)LSU 123.23 13.77
9)Indiana 119.25 17.75
10)Wake Forest 118.66 18.34
11)Missouri 118.45 18.55
12)Arizona 116.82 20.18
13)BYU 114.22 22.78
14)Mississippi State 113.12 23.88
15)UCLA 112.90 24.10
16)Texas Tech 112.60 24.40
17)Nebraska 112.12 24.88
18)Houston 111.60 25.40
19)Northwestern 110.95 26.05
20)Wisconsin 109.22 27.78
21)Baylor 106.50 30.50
22)Pittsburgh 105.87 31.13
23)Penn State 105.46 31.54
24)Oklahoma 104.90 32.10
25)Ole Miss 104.58 32.42
26)South Carolina 104.42 32.58
27)Georgia State 104.23 32.77
28)Iowa 102.58 34.42
29)Florida 101.92 35.08
30)Oklahoma State 101.04 35.96
31)Tennessee 100.94 36.06
32)James Madison 100.56 36.44
33)USC 100.55 36.45
34)Louisville 100.22 36.78
35)New Mexico 99.21 37.79
36)Kentucky 99.02 37.98
37)Memphis 97.13 39.87
38)Michigan 96.10 40.90
39)Auburn 95.91 41.09
40)Oregon 95.27 41.73
41)Duke 95.07 41.93
42)Kansas 92.67 44.33
43)Liberty 92.47 44.53
44)Boise State 92.17 44.83
45)Oregon State 88.94 48.06
46)SMU 88.44 48.56
47)Virginia Tech 85.03 51.97
48)UCF 83.72 53.28
49)Texas A&M 83.35 53.65
50)Florida State 83.18 53.82
51)Purdue 81.42 55.58
52)North Carolina 81.21 55.79
53)Iowa State 81.05 55.95
54)Louisiana 80.07 56.93
55)TCU 79.71 57.29
56)Cincinnati 79.03 57.97
57)Illinois 78.41 58.59
58)North Dakota State 74.11 62.89
59)Fresno State 72.14 64.86
60)Kansas State 70.60 66.40
61)Virginia 69.71 67.29
62)Florida International 68.52 68.48
63)UConn 68.40 68.60
64)Georgia Tech 68.21 68.79
65)North Texas 67.38 69.62
66)Clemson 67.31 69.69
67)Jacksonville State 67.24 69.76
68)Syracuse 66.87 70.13
69)Troy 64.73 72.27
70)UTSA 64.27 72.73
71)Boston College 64.08 72.92
72)Michigan State 63.99 73.01
73)Massachusetts 63.64 73.36
74)UNLV 63.19 73.81
75)Toledo 60.79 76.21
76)Air Force 60.59 76.41
77)Texas State 60.02 76.98
78)Vanderbilt 59.05 77.95
79)Minnesota 58.43 78.57
80)Nevada 57.55 79.45
81)Miami (OH) 56.99 80.01
82)Arizona State 56.82 80.18
83)Temple 55.42 81.58
84)Washington 55.12 81.88
85)West Virginia 54.61 82.39
86)Tulane 52.72 84.28
87)Rutgers 52.72 84.28
88)Florida Atlantic 52.62 84.38
89)Georgia Southern 51.95 85.05
90)San José State 51.79 85.21
91)South Alabama 51.61 85.39
92)California 51.30 85.70
93)Utah State 50.11 86.89
94)Navy 49.88 87.12
95)South Florida 49.37 87.63
96)Arkansas 48.57 88.43
97)Western Michigan 46.90 90.10
98)Louisiana Tech 45.60 91.40
99)Stanford 43.96 93.04
100)Ohio 43.20 93.80
101)Arkansas State 42.70 94.30
102)NC State 42.60 94.40
103)Colorado State 42.52 94.48
104)App State 41.70 95.30
105)Maryland 41.58 95.42
106)UAB 40.37 96.63
107)Colorado 40.25 96.75
108)Tulsa 40.16 96.84
109)New Mexico State 39.77 97.23
110)East Carolina 39.25 97.75
111)Wyoming 39.14 97.86
112)Eastern Michigan 37.15 99.85
113)Army 36.92 100.08
114)Northern Illinois 36.73 100.27
115)Kennesaw State 36.13 100.87
116)Rice 33.67 103.33
117)Delaware 32.58 104.42
118)Buffalo 31.22 105.78
119)Coastal Carolina 30.34 106.66
120)Central Michigan 30.23 106.77
121)Washington State 28.51 108.49
122)Middle Tennessee 27.96 109.04
123)San Diego State 27.86 109.14
124)Old Dominion 26.72 110.28
125)Hawai'i 26.12 110.88
126)Southern Miss 24.81 112.19
127)Bowling Green 23.89 113.11
128)Sam Houston 22.59 114.41
129)Marshall 21.37 115.63
130)Western Kentucky 16.08 120.92
131)Akron 15.13 121.87
132)Charlotte 12.94 124.06
133)Kent State 11.85 125.15
134)Missouri State 11.49 125.51
135)Ball State 10.30 126.70
136)Sacramento State 7.73 129.27
137)UL Monroe 7.65 129.35
138)UTEP 4.19 132.81