College Football Nerds Rankings

Take a look at our Computer Model 1-136 ranking that simulates each team playing all other 132 FBS teams in college football.

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College Football Nerds Computer Model 1-136

This ranking is based on modeling every team against every other team in the country and calculating expected record. Outcomes are matchup-dependent, so a lower-ranked team may still be favored in the model over some higher-ranked teams. The modeling is conference/opponent adjusted, and overall records reflect win probabilities (an even game is 0.5-0.5)

 
Wins Losses
1)Ohio State 128.86 6.14
2)Indiana 124.11 10.89
3)Texas Tech 121.87 13.13
4)Missouri 120.23 14.77
5)Oklahoma 120.09 14.91
6)Miami 119.65 15.35
7)Michigan 117.51 17.49
8)Oregon 117.37 17.63
9)Vanderbilt 116.88 18.12
10)Notre Dame 116.64 18.36
11)USC 114.53 20.47
12)Ole Miss 113.83 21.17
13)Georgia 113.78 21.22
14)Alabama 113.75 21.25
15)Florida State 112.76 22.24
16)BYU 110.78 24.22
17)Memphis 109.60 25.40
18)Pittsburgh 109.31 25.69
19)Texas 109.17 25.83
20)Texas A&M 107.96 27.04
21)LSU 107.83 27.17
22)Tennessee 105.18 29.82
23)Old Dominion 104.50 30.50
24)Cincinnati 103.93 31.07
25)Washington 103.19 31.81
26)Nebraska 102.95 32.05
27)Kansas 101.90 33.10
28)Auburn 101.16 33.84
29)Utah 100.60 34.40
30)Toledo 98.89 36.11
31)Navy 98.45 36.55
32)TCU 97.71 37.29
33)Illinois 96.07 38.93
34)Penn State 95.72 39.28
35)Virginia 95.44 39.56
36)Arkansas 95.04 39.96
37)Mississippi State 94.02 40.98
38)Arizona State 93.20 41.80
39)Louisville 93.15 41.85
40)Georgia Tech 93.09 41.91
41)Maryland 92.19 42.81
42)South Carolina 89.42 45.58
43)North Texas 88.77 46.23
44)Duke 88.67 46.33
45)SMU 88.14 46.86
46)UNLV 87.40 47.60
47)Houston 87.16 47.84
48)UCF 87.01 47.99
49)Clemson 85.75 49.25
50)Iowa State 84.23 50.77
51)NC State 83.01 51.99
52)Louisiana Tech 80.77 54.23
53)East Carolina 79.90 55.10
54)James Madison 79.38 55.62
55)Wisconsin 78.51 56.49
56)San Diego State 78.34 56.66
57)Wake Forest 77.64 57.36
58)Iowa 76.57 58.43
59)Colorado 76.55 58.45
60)Arizona 75.13 59.87
61)Michigan State 73.93 61.07
62)Northwestern 73.01 61.99
63)New Mexico 72.15 62.85
64)UConn 72.12 62.88
65)Kansas State 71.10 63.90
66)Utah State 70.41 64.59
67)Tulane 67.46 67.54
68)Baylor 67.26 67.74
69)Florida 64.72 70.28
70)South Florida 64.58 70.42
71)Texas State 63.26 71.74
72)Southern Miss 62.73 72.27
73)Boise State 62.50 72.50
74)Western Kentucky 61.24 73.76
75)Delaware 60.37 74.63
76)Kentucky 58.64 76.36
77)Miami (OH) 58.32 76.68
78)Fresno State 57.55 77.45
79)San José State 57.08 77.92
80)Rutgers 56.46 78.54
81)Washington State 54.03 80.97
82)Western Michigan 53.74 81.26
83)Stanford 53.47 81.53
84)Purdue 53.37 81.63
85)California 52.88 82.12
86)Ohio 52.59 82.41
87)Syracuse 51.91 83.09
88)Army 49.42 85.58
89)Minnesota 48.60 86.40
90)Troy 45.82 89.18
91)Buffalo 45.31 89.69
92)Nevada 44.18 90.82
93)Kennesaw State 43.46 91.54
94)Virginia Tech 43.20 91.80
95)Temple 42.83 92.17
96)South Alabama 42.34 92.66
97)Northern Illinois 41.56 93.44
98)Oregon State 40.33 94.67
99)New Mexico State 40.32 94.68
100)Louisiana 40.31 94.69
101)Central Michigan 39.94 95.06
102)Boston College 39.62 95.38
103)UTSA 39.24 95.76
104)West Virginia 38.61 96.39
105)UCLA 38.61 96.39
106)Tulsa 37.81 97.19
107)App State 37.54 97.46
108)Florida Atlantic 37.27 97.73
109)Marshall 36.94 98.06
110)Air Force 36.81 98.19
111)Hawai'i 36.80 98.20
112)Rice 35.91 99.09
113)North Carolina 35.61 99.39
114)Missouri State 34.61 100.39
115)Bowling Green 32.95 102.05
116)Wyoming 30.65 104.35
117)UL Monroe 30.15 104.85
118)UTEP 29.89 105.11
119)Eastern Michigan 29.42 105.58
120)Georgia Southern 28.34 106.66
121)Liberty 28.23 106.77
122)Jacksonville State 27.52 107.48
123)Georgia State 22.87 112.13
124)Arkansas State 22.27 112.73
125)Ball State 21.36 113.64
126)Coastal Carolina 20.81 114.19
127)Florida International 20.70 114.30
128)Charlotte 20.04 114.96
129)Middle Tennessee 18.99 116.01
130)Colorado State 17.84 117.16
131)Oklahoma State 17.68 117.32
132)UAB 17.47 117.53
133)Akron 15.89 119.11
134)Kent State 13.84 121.16
135)Sam Houston 10.87 124.13
136)Massachusetts 9.76 125.24