College Football Nerds Rankings

Take a look at our Computer Model 1-133 ranking that simulates each team playing all other 132 FBS teams in college football.

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College Football Nerds Computer Model 1-133

This ranking is based on modeling every team against every other team in the country and calculating expected record. Outcomes are matchup-dependent, so a lower-ranked team may still be favored in the model over some higher-ranked teams. The modeling is conference/opponent adjusted, and overall records reflect win probabilities (an even game is 0.5-0.5)

 
Wins Losses
1)Ohio State 126.67 6.33
2)Texas 125.20 7.80
3)Ole Miss 121.70 11.30
4)Indiana 121.10 11.90
5)Oregon 120.80 12.20
6)Tennessee 117.14 15.86
7)Alabama 116.65 16.35
8)Notre Dame 115.07 17.93
9)Miami 114.58 18.42
10)Iowa State 114.18 18.82
11)Army 113.84 19.16
12)Penn State 111.45 21.55
13)SMU 111.41 21.59
14)BYU 111.17 21.83
15)Georgia 110.34 22.66
16)South Carolina 109.67 23.33
17)LSU 107.26 25.74
18)Pittsburgh 106.42 26.58
19)USC 105.61 27.39
20)Texas A&M 103.42 29.58
21)Clemson 101.57 31.43
22)Colorado 100.40 32.60
23)Louisville 99.45 33.55
24)Florida 99.20 33.80
25)Tulane 98.73 34.27
26)Cincinnati 95.68 37.32
27)Kansas State 94.85 38.15
28)California 94.61 38.39
29)Iowa 93.54 39.46
30)Washington 93.29 39.71
31)Boise State 92.30 40.70
32)Wisconsin 91.50 41.50
33)Texas Tech 88.38 44.62
34)Virginia Tech 88.14 44.86
35)UNLV 87.24 45.76
36)Minnesota 86.83 46.17
37)Baylor 86.78 46.22
38)Auburn 86.04 46.96
39)Nebraska 84.82 48.18
40)Michigan 83.83 49.17
41)UCF 83.72 49.28
42)Miami (OH) 83.22 49.78
43)Arkansas 83.00 50.00
44)Washington State 82.64 50.36
45)Arizona State 82.11 50.89
46)Kansas 81.34 51.66
47)James Madison 80.07 52.93
48)Vanderbilt 80.01 52.99
49)TCU 79.21 53.79
50)Liberty 78.64 54.36
51)North Carolina 77.07 55.93
52)Missouri 76.86 56.14
53)Duke 74.89 58.11
54)Texas State 73.73 59.27
55)Illinois 73.69 59.31
56)Maryland 73.51 59.49
57)Kentucky 72.58 60.42
58)Arizona 72.36 60.64
59)Michigan State 71.09 61.91
60)West Virginia 70.91 62.09
61)Georgia Tech 70.22 62.78
62)Oklahoma 69.57 63.43
63)Memphis 69.38 63.62
64)Northwestern 67.69 65.31
65)UCLA 67.58 65.42
66)Utah 67.02 65.98
67)Marshall 66.07 66.93
68)NC State 65.79 67.21
69)Northern Illinois 65.33 67.67
70)Louisiana 64.87 68.13
71)Navy 64.77 68.23
72)Wake Forest 62.72 70.28
73)Rutgers 62.37 70.63
74)Bowling Green 61.79 71.21
75)Western Kentucky 60.37 72.63
76)Colorado State 59.63 73.37
77)Jacksonville State 59.20 73.80
78)Syracuse 58.82 74.18
79)Ohio 58.46 74.54
80)San Jose State 58.01 74.99
81)Houston 57.78 75.22
82)South Alabama 57.70 75.30
83)Old Dominion 57.69 75.31
84)Virginia 56.98 76.02
85)Fresno State 56.23 76.77
86)Coastal Carolina 56.04 76.96
87)North Texas 55.81 77.19
88)San Diego State 55.22 77.78
89)Toledo 55.16 77.84
90)Oregon State 54.82 78.18
91)Sam Houston 54.53 78.47
92)UConn 54.21 78.79
93)East Carolina 52.83 80.17
94)Boston College 51.72 81.28
95)UMass 49.72 83.28
96)Florida State 49.43 83.57
97)Oklahoma State 49.15 83.85
98)UL Monroe 48.32 84.68
99)Nevada 48.27 84.73
100)Georgia Southern 47.42 85.58
101)New Mexico 46.01 86.99
102)Charlotte 44.38 88.62
103)Louisiana Tech 44.16 88.84
104)Florida International 44.14 88.86
105)UTSA 43.63 89.37
106)Rice 40.19 92.81
107)Florida Atlantic 39.53 93.47
108)Mississippi State 34.19 98.81
109)Utah State 33.11 99.89
110)Western Michigan 32.68 100.32
111)Stanford 30.89 102.11
112)Appalachian State 30.71 102.29
113)Air Force 29.89 103.11
114)Georgia State 27.83 105.17
115)Hawai'i 27.27 105.73
116)Kennesaw State 25.97 107.03
117)UTEP 24.94 108.06
118)Temple 24.06 108.94
119)Arkansas State 23.53 109.47
120)Buffalo 23.44 109.56
121)New Mexico State 22.15 110.85
122)Wyoming 21.13 111.87
123)Central Michigan 20.64 112.36
124)Troy 20.50 112.50
125)Purdue 19.88 113.12
126)Eastern Michigan 19.53 113.47
127)South Florida 17.89 115.11
128)Southern Miss 16.13 116.87
129)Akron 15.06 117.94
130)Middle Tennessee 14.33 118.67
131)Ball State 12.29 120.71
132)UAB 11.30 121.70
133)Tulsa 11.25 121.75
134)Kent State 6.60 126.40